Milenko Kindl
Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls
appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and
it's gradually depreciating.
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The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of
the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to
lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That's a slightly smaller
uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical
party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were
evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic
convention, according to Gallup.
That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000
people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event
that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also
comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul,
and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.
Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that
Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general
election. But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger
than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned
may have already peaked.
On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points.
By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s
standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46
percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but
statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage
point since Saturday.
CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40
percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll
prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds
that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who
did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce
is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton
received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican
convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than
Obama.
But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a
victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the
news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah
Palin as John McCain's running mate, the opening of the Republican
convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.
There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most
recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will
not be known for days.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll,
both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is
in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no
statistically significant convention bounce.
Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican
nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best
opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in
the presidential race.
Milenko Kindl
Banja Luka
Banjaluka
Barack Obama’s post-Democratic National Convention bounce in the polls
appears to be slightly smaller than the norm of past conventions, and
it's gradually depreciating.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Gallup daily tracking poll has found that since the conclusion of
the convention, Obama has risen 4 percentage points in the polls, to
lead McCain 49 percent to 43 percent today. That's a slightly smaller
uptick in the polls than the 5- to 6-point bounce earned by a typical
party nominee, by Gallup’s measure, since 1964. Obama and McCain were
evenly split at 45 percentage points apiece prior to the Democratic
convention, according to Gallup.
That outcome comes despite Obama’s speech before more than 80,000
people at Invesco Field in Denver on Thursday night, a political event
that was also seen by about 40 million television viewers. It also
comes as the Republican convention quietly got under way in St. Paul,
and the national media gaze focuses southward to Hurricane Gustav.
Daily tracking polls by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports demonstrate that
Obama has taken his greatest lead since July, if not the general
election. But while Obama’s support remains significantly stronger
than weeks ago, it appears that the post-convention bounce he earned
may have already peaked.
On Saturday, Gallup reported Obama was ahead by 8 percentage points.
By Monday, that lead had shrunk to 5 points. Rasmussen pegs Obama’s
standing as relatively stable in recent days, with a 49 percent to 46
percent lead over McCain when “leaners” are included, a small but
statistically insignificant improvement for McCain of 1 percentage
point since Saturday.
CBS News reported Monday that Obama is now ahead in its poll, 48 to 40
percent, a 3-point uptick in Obama’s standing compared to its poll
prior to the Democratic convention. Obama’s 3-point bounce exceeds
that of John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 who
did not rise in the polls following his convention. But Obama’s bounce
is less than a third of what Al Gore received in 2000 and Bill Clinton
received in 1992. Even Bob Dole, following the 1996 Republican
convention, received a 4-point bounce in the polls, 1 point more than
Obama.
But any Obama bounce, if it is sustained, could be said to be a
victory for Democrats. In the days since Obama gave his address, the
news cycles have been captured by the unveiling of Alaska Gov. Sarah
Palin as John McCain's running mate, the opening of the Republican
convention and the threat posed by Hurricane Gustav.
There have been only three previous back-to-back conventions, most
recently in 1956. The effect of the GOP convention on the polls will
not be known for days.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll and a Zogby Interactive flash poll,
both completed over the weekend, have found the presidential race is
in a dead heat. According to both polls, Obama attained no
statistically significant convention bounce.
Whether Obama is ahead or tied with McCain, the presumptive Republican
nominee will now come into the Republican convention with his best
opportunity yet to break through his own ceiling and take a lead in
the presidential race.
Milenko Kindl
Banja Luka
Banjaluka
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