Re: Future reuse of code
"Peter E.C. Dashwood" <dashwood@enter net.co.nz> wrote in message
news:3f3abf9b_1 @news.athenanew s.com...[color=blue]
> It is normal and natural for programmers to see things from a programming
> perspective.
>
> What I am suggesting is bigger than that.
> I foresee a time when there will be no need for the "lower level"
> programming you are talking about, Bill.[/color]
What is a "lower level" programmer. The boundaries will shift but there
will still always be the lower level...maybe it's not a bit and byte
programmer but a trainer. It's still a form of programming. Even in a
sophisticated piece of adaptive software someone would have to provide the
learning environment - initially, until that role gets replaced and we move
along the escalator again. I still see this as a role of a "programmer "
more than an "end user" - though the lines may become blurry.
[color=blue]
> The job of building the tools will be complete. And "smart software" will[/color]
do[color=blue]
> the enhancements to it.[/color]
Don't forget the cost factor. It's still cheaper to pay a labourer 80c a
day to strip bark from wood for 10 hours than it is to maintain the
machinery to do it. Money will be the determining factor of what will and
won't happen - and soon after the class struggle. I assume the same to be
more true in IT - it already is happening....fr ee overtime is cheaper than a
good toolset.
[color=blue]
> There are already specialised tools and wizards to do specific jobs.
> (Network management, for instance). Programmers are not redeveloping these
> tools; you could argue that they are "complete". They work and do the job
> they are designed for. In fact, it would not be desirable to have
> programmers "fiddling" with them.[/color]
Will the same TCP/IP still be used used in 15 years? Can we still use the
same network management tools when routers are obsolete, switches aren't
what they used to be.
Hardware *still* drives software. Plug n Play never saved the day....I
don't see tools fixing themselves to work with the hardware unless there is
another operating environment layer...made by...
Another important thing you don't consider is the power of the hobbyist and
the yearning that some people have to do things.
People could all drive automatic cars. But they still opt for manual.
People could ride in buses that drop them off at the exact destination, but
people like to drive and do. The business world isn't shielded from this.
Success of tools is still dependent on their usage. Unless people all jump
high onto a new set I think 15 years is too short for anything dominant to
come along and shape the IT world you envision. Linux didn't happen because
of Redhat or IBM but because of the underlying support from regular workers.
[color=blue]
> I only have one lifetime and I cannot be an expert in everything. Sooner[/color]
or[color=blue]
> later it is necessary to trust someone else's experience.
> Your assumption that there will ALWAYS be a requirement for "low level"
> programmers to keep maintaining tools is, at best, arguable, at worst,[/color]
just[color=blue]
> dead wrong.[/color]
Not talking for Bill....maybe your view of "low level" is too narrow ;-)
[color=blue]
> Smart software will take on this role. Even if it isn't
> "intelligen t", this lack can be compensated for by keeping Humans in the
> loop. These Humans will be end Users, not technicians.[/color]
What happens when the end User cannot get the results he wants...who's he
gonna call?
User: "Give me X"..
I can give you a kinda X
User: "Give me X"
I can give you a kinda X
User: "Give me X"
I can give you a kinda X
User: "Hey tech geek..can you get this thing to give me X?"
User: "Hey, where'd you go....hey tech geek...."
User: "Hellooo?.. is anyone there...."
I can give you a kinda X, you still want it?
If I had to guess....Bill is too narrow and you're too wide....we'll get
something in between I'm sure (in 15 years!)
Last post on the matter - though I will no doubt keep reading :-)
JCE
btw: I hope you're a little wrong...because I still got to ride this out for
another few decades whilst you are relaxing on the shore somewhere.
"Peter E.C. Dashwood" <dashwood@enter net.co.nz> wrote in message
news:3f3abf9b_1 @news.athenanew s.com...[color=blue]
> It is normal and natural for programmers to see things from a programming
> perspective.
>
> What I am suggesting is bigger than that.
> I foresee a time when there will be no need for the "lower level"
> programming you are talking about, Bill.[/color]
What is a "lower level" programmer. The boundaries will shift but there
will still always be the lower level...maybe it's not a bit and byte
programmer but a trainer. It's still a form of programming. Even in a
sophisticated piece of adaptive software someone would have to provide the
learning environment - initially, until that role gets replaced and we move
along the escalator again. I still see this as a role of a "programmer "
more than an "end user" - though the lines may become blurry.
[color=blue]
> The job of building the tools will be complete. And "smart software" will[/color]
do[color=blue]
> the enhancements to it.[/color]
Don't forget the cost factor. It's still cheaper to pay a labourer 80c a
day to strip bark from wood for 10 hours than it is to maintain the
machinery to do it. Money will be the determining factor of what will and
won't happen - and soon after the class struggle. I assume the same to be
more true in IT - it already is happening....fr ee overtime is cheaper than a
good toolset.
[color=blue]
> There are already specialised tools and wizards to do specific jobs.
> (Network management, for instance). Programmers are not redeveloping these
> tools; you could argue that they are "complete". They work and do the job
> they are designed for. In fact, it would not be desirable to have
> programmers "fiddling" with them.[/color]
Will the same TCP/IP still be used used in 15 years? Can we still use the
same network management tools when routers are obsolete, switches aren't
what they used to be.
Hardware *still* drives software. Plug n Play never saved the day....I
don't see tools fixing themselves to work with the hardware unless there is
another operating environment layer...made by...
Another important thing you don't consider is the power of the hobbyist and
the yearning that some people have to do things.
People could all drive automatic cars. But they still opt for manual.
People could ride in buses that drop them off at the exact destination, but
people like to drive and do. The business world isn't shielded from this.
Success of tools is still dependent on their usage. Unless people all jump
high onto a new set I think 15 years is too short for anything dominant to
come along and shape the IT world you envision. Linux didn't happen because
of Redhat or IBM but because of the underlying support from regular workers.
[color=blue]
> I only have one lifetime and I cannot be an expert in everything. Sooner[/color]
or[color=blue]
> later it is necessary to trust someone else's experience.
> Your assumption that there will ALWAYS be a requirement for "low level"
> programmers to keep maintaining tools is, at best, arguable, at worst,[/color]
just[color=blue]
> dead wrong.[/color]
Not talking for Bill....maybe your view of "low level" is too narrow ;-)
[color=blue]
> Smart software will take on this role. Even if it isn't
> "intelligen t", this lack can be compensated for by keeping Humans in the
> loop. These Humans will be end Users, not technicians.[/color]
What happens when the end User cannot get the results he wants...who's he
gonna call?
User: "Give me X"..
I can give you a kinda X
User: "Give me X"
I can give you a kinda X
User: "Give me X"
I can give you a kinda X
User: "Hey tech geek..can you get this thing to give me X?"
User: "Hey, where'd you go....hey tech geek...."
User: "Hellooo?.. is anyone there...."
I can give you a kinda X, you still want it?
If I had to guess....Bill is too narrow and you're too wide....we'll get
something in between I'm sure (in 15 years!)
Last post on the matter - though I will no doubt keep reading :-)
JCE
btw: I hope you're a little wrong...because I still got to ride this out for
another few decades whilst you are relaxing on the shore somewhere.
Comment