Re: Garbage collection
On Apr 25, 8:41 pm, "cr88192" <cr88...@NOSPAM .hotmail.comwro te:
Exactly. COBOL and Fortran are still going strong.
That, and $3.75 will get you a cup of coffee.
I think that the next ten years will be an even bigger surprise than
the previous ten years, and the surprises will accelerate. Since
total knowledge doubles every 5 years now, and the trend is going
exponential-exponential, I think that projecting what will be is much
harder than you think.
I think that 6 months from now is difficult, even for stock prices,
much less industry trends. We can mathematically project these things
but you will see that the prediction and confidence intervals bell out
in an absurd manner after the last data point.
I guess that 15 years from now Windows will still dominate, unless the
Mac takes over or Linux does really well. Linux is not a desktop
force, but it is making server inroads.
VM developmments are nice, but we lose horsepower. I'm not at all
sure it is the right model for computation.
I think that file systems should be database systems, like the AS/400
and even OpenVMS have.
I guess five years, but maybe not. We are going 64 bit here now, both
with machines and OS, but it's still a few weeks off. However, I
guess that our office is atypical.
256G Ram is way too low for 10 years from now. My guess would be 1 TB
give or take a factor of 2.
I suspect we won't be using platter based hard drive technology ten
years from now. I know of some alternate technologies that will store
1 TB on one square cm and so something like that will take over once
the disk drive manufacturers have depreciated their current capital.
I don't know if core count will be the thing that pushes technology or
some completely new idea.
It went like this before:
Mechanical switch
Relay
Vacuum tube
Transistor
IC
VLSI
I guess something new will come along right about the time that
silicon can no longer keep up. It always has before.
We get ourselves into trouble when we try to predict the future. Look
at the economic analysis by Marx and Engels. It was very good. But
their predictions on what the future held were not so good.
I think that we have a hard time knowing for sure about tomorrow.
Next week is a stretch. Next year is a guess. Five years is
speculation. Ten years is fantasy. Twenty years is just being silly.
IMO-YMMV
Now, is there some C content in here somewhere? Oh, right -- C is
going to lose force. I predict:
1. C will lose force.
OR
2. C will gain force.
OR
3. C will stay the same.
That's trichotomy for you. And I can guarantee that I am right about
it.
On Apr 25, 8:41 pm, "cr88192" <cr88...@NOSPAM .hotmail.comwro te:
"user923005 " <dcor...@connx. comwrote in message
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yes, however, IME it is not always so difficult...
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my approach consists of taking the current observed trends, and "running
them forwards".
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the reason I can try to predict so far ahead, is given the incredibly slow
rate of change WRT programming languages.
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news:e76d9c78-ad7c-44d8-896c-ba95d0dd5b16@l6 4g2000hse.googl egroups.com...
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On Apr 25, 3:34 pm, "cr88192" <cr88...@NOSPAM .hotmail.comwro te:
"Yunzhong" <gaoyunzh...@gm ail.comwrote in message
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and so on...
as noted, this is mostly all just speculation here...
Looking at the past is always easy.
Prophecy proves more difficult.
Prophecy proves more difficult.
yes, however, IME it is not always so difficult...
>
my approach consists of taking the current observed trends, and "running
them forwards".
>
the reason I can try to predict so far ahead, is given the incredibly slow
rate of change WRT programming languages.
now, my claim here is not accuracy, only a vague guess...
however, even vague guesses can be worthwhile...
however, even vague guesses can be worthwhile...
something different could happen, so then one has to consider, how likely is
it that it will happen this way, and how likely it is that it will happen
some other way...
>
my understanding of the trends, is because I have lived through many of the
changes, and have watched them progress at the terribly slow rate at which
they are going, and so, can make a guess as to what will happen within a
related timeframe.
>
I think, the next 10 years are not too hard to guess (ignoring any
catastrophic events or revolutionary changes, but these are rare enough to
be ignored).
it that it will happen this way, and how likely it is that it will happen
some other way...
>
my understanding of the trends, is because I have lived through many of the
changes, and have watched them progress at the terribly slow rate at which
they are going, and so, can make a guess as to what will happen within a
related timeframe.
>
I think, the next 10 years are not too hard to guess (ignoring any
catastrophic events or revolutionary changes, but these are rare enough to
be ignored).
the previous ten years, and the surprises will accelerate. Since
total knowledge doubles every 5 years now, and the trend is going
exponential-exponential, I think that projecting what will be is much
harder than you think.
moving much outside this, say, 15 or 20 years, requires a good deal more
speculation.
speculation.
much less industry trends. We can mathematically project these things
but you will see that the prediction and confidence intervals bell out
in an absurd manner after the last data point.
the reason for a decline in windows and rise of linux would be due to the
current decline in windows and current rise in linux. I had just assumed
that these continue at the current rates.
current decline in windows and current rise in linux. I had just assumed
that these continue at the current rates.
Mac takes over or Linux does really well. Linux is not a desktop
force, but it is making server inroads.
the reason for a decline in the process model would be because of the rise
of VM-like developments (however, it is very possible that processes may
remain as a vestigial feature, and thus not go away).
of VM-like developments (however, it is very possible that processes may
remain as a vestigial feature, and thus not go away).
sure it is the right model for computation.
as for filesystems, the prediction is that they move from being pure
heirarchies, to being annotated with so much metadata that they are, in
effect, based on the network-model, rather than heirarchical.
heirarchies, to being annotated with so much metadata that they are, in
effect, based on the network-model, rather than heirarchical.
and even OpenVMS have.
other guesses:
>
I can also claim, in a similar line of thought that, most likely, in 10
years, x86-64 will most likely be the dominant architecture.
>
I can also claim, in a similar line of thought that, most likely, in 10
years, x86-64 will most likely be the dominant architecture.
with machines and OS, but it's still a few weeks off. However, I
guess that our office is atypical.
estimating from current curves, computers will likely have around 256GB RAM,
and HDs will be around 125TB...
and HDs will be around 125TB...
give or take a factor of 2.
I suspect we won't be using platter based hard drive technology ten
years from now. I know of some alternate technologies that will store
1 TB on one square cm and so something like that will take over once
the disk drive manufacturers have depreciated their current capital.
the model doesn't hold up so well WRT processor power, a crude guess is that
there will be around 64 cores, processing power being somewhere between 1.1
and 1.5 TFLOP (assuming only a gradual increase in terms of per-core power
and that the per-core complexity will go up a little faster than the
transistor density). an uncertainty here is in the scope and nature of
future vector extensions, so my guess is likely to be conservative...
there will be around 64 cores, processing power being somewhere between 1.1
and 1.5 TFLOP (assuming only a gradual increase in terms of per-core power
and that the per-core complexity will go up a little faster than the
transistor density). an uncertainty here is in the scope and nature of
future vector extensions, so my guess is likely to be conservative...
some completely new idea.
It went like this before:
Mechanical switch
Relay
Vacuum tube
Transistor
IC
VLSI
3D lithography and Stack-chips, allong with reaching a maximal transistor
density, are other factors that could throw predictions (currently based
simply on mental curve approximation).
density, are other factors that could throw predictions (currently based
simply on mental curve approximation).
silicon can no longer keep up. It always has before.
We get ourselves into trouble when we try to predict the future. Look
at the economic analysis by Marx and Engels. It was very good. But
their predictions on what the future held were not so good.
I think that we have a hard time knowing for sure about tomorrow.
Next week is a stretch. Next year is a guess. Five years is
speculation. Ten years is fantasy. Twenty years is just being silly.
IMO-YMMV
Now, is there some C content in here somewhere? Oh, right -- C is
going to lose force. I predict:
1. C will lose force.
OR
2. C will gain force.
OR
3. C will stay the same.
That's trichotomy for you. And I can guarantee that I am right about
it.
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